In Streetwise Hebrew for the Times of Israel Community, each month we learn several colloquial Hebrew phrases around a common theme. These are bite-size audio Hebrew classes that we think you'll really enjoy. This month, we're learning phrases on the topic of strength and power. Ready to get tough with us? So now we have a request. Leaders matter tremendously for terrorist groups, especially jihadi ones, which often rise and fall based on the fortunes of their emir. The al-Qaida core and its affiliates in Yemen, North Africa, and other countries, however, have been waging war for decades and they are likely to put forward a battle-tested leader who has at least some credibility.
Indeed, it is possible that the new leader may be more charismatic than Zawahri. Any successor will also benefit from the decline of ISIS , which is far weaker and less inspiring now that it has lost the caliphate. ISIS still endures, both in Syria and with supporters in other countries, and its model and ideas are powerful.
The competition will continue. However, ISIS is no longer the recruiting and fundraising behemoth it was as its peak in and These affiliates have their own incentives to stay loyal and keep the al-Qaida name. But if the global al-Qaida brand remains weak, there is less incentive for new groups to join and more for existing affiliates to defect. In order to boost his stature, the new leader may seek to conduct a high-profile terrorist attack on the West or otherwise gain attention.
This would help him prove his bona fides and separate the leader from the mass of more local figures who are all vying for recruits and money. Complicating such plans, however, is the robust U. In Pakistan, Syria, Yemen , and elsewhere, al-Qaida leaders and key operatives are hunted. Zawahiri, 69, has seen Al-Qaeda essentially franchise out its operations from the Maghreb to Somalia to Afghanistan, as well as in Syria and Iraq.
It said Zawahiri had indeed played a major role in the reorganisation of numerous jihadist groups under Al-Qaeda's umbrella. At the end of , unconfirmed reports re-emerged that Zawahiri had died from a heart condition, the latest in years of rumours that he was in fact dead. But the lack of any firm date on the video made it impossible to confirm or deny if he is still alive -- and analysts have already noted his exceptional longevity since he joined up with jihadist circles four decades ago in Egypt.
The uncertainty over the composition of Al-Qaeda's leadership was intensified last August following the killing in Tehran, reportedly by Israeli agents, of Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, the group's number two under al-Zawahiri and known by his nom-de-guerre of Abu Mohammed al-Masri.
If Zawahiri is still alive, it means Al-Qaeda is led by a man most likely in ailing health who, despite being one of the architects of the September 11, , attacks, lacks the macabre magnetism of his predecessor. Washington's lack of interest may be down to the weakening importance of Al-Qaeda as a decision-making hub, coinciding with the rise of the rival Islamic State group. IS, which at its peak controlled a self-proclaimed "caliphate" comprising swathes of Iraq and Syria, notably stole the thunder of Al-Qaeda in media as its radical voice dominated social networks.
Rather than joining forces, the two groups have fought on numerous battlefields in the Middle East and Africa, and Al-Qaeda is still confronted with a challenge to remain relevant.
0コメント